Network Traffic Forecast / CAGR Calculator
Project mobile data traffic growth using CAGR — year-by-year table, doubling time, and capacity exhaustion analysis for LTE and 5G planning.
Mode
Enter current traffic + CAGR to project forward year by year.
Traffic at Year 0 (today)
Industry typical: 25–35% (Ericsson MR 2024)
1–10 years
Maximum usable capacity in the same unit. Leave blank to skip exhaustion analysis.
Doubling time
2.6 yrs
At 30% CAGR
Traffic in 5 yrs
371.3 Gbps
3.71× current
Traffic in 5 years: 371.3 Gbps — 3.71× current
Traffic growth chart
Year-by-year forecast
| Year | Traffic (Gbps) | vs Year 0 | YoY % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 0 (now) | 100 | 1.00× | — |
| Year 1 | 130 | 1.30× | 30.0% |
| Year 2 | 169 | 1.69× | 30.0% |
| Year 3 | 219.7 | 2.20× | 30.0% |
| Year 4 | 285.6 | 2.86× | 30.0% |
| Year 5 | 371.3 | 3.71× | 30.0% |
Traffic Forecasting Reference
Traffic forecasts feed directly into backhaul capacity dimensioning — as data traffic grows, transport links must scale in parallel. The root driver of traffic growth is subscriber growth, though spectrum efficiency improvements (higher modulation, massive MIMO, carrier aggregation) can partially offset raw traffic CAGR by delivering more bits per Hz.
Formulas
Forecast: T(n) = T(0) × (1 + CAGR/100)^n
Doubling time: T₂ = log(2) / log(1 + CAGR/100) [years]
CAGR from data: CAGR = ((End / Start)^(1/n) − 1) × 100
Exhaustion: n = log(Ceiling / T(0)) / log(1 + CAGR/100)
CAGR quick reference
| CAGR | Doubling time | 5-year multiplier | 10-year multiplier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | 7.3 years | 1.6× | 2.6× |
| 20% | 3.8 years | 2.5× | 6.2× |
| 30% | 2.6 years | 3.7× | 13.8× |
| 40% | 2.1 years | 5.4× | 28.9× |
| 50% | 1.7 years | 7.6× | 57.7× |
Industry CAGR references
- Ericsson Mobility Report 2024 — global mobile data traffic CAGR approximately 25–35% through 2029, driven by video, FWA, and 5G adoption.
- Cisco Annual Internet Report — global IP traffic CAGR approximately 20–30%, with mobile accounting for an increasing share.
- ITU-D ICT Data — regional growth patterns vary significantly; sub-Saharan Africa and South/Southeast Asia typically show higher CAGRs (35–60%) than Western Europe and North America (10–20%).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is CAGR and how is it used in network capacity planning?▾
CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is the year-over-year growth rate that takes compounding into account. For mobile data traffic, CAGR is used to project how demand will grow so operators can plan infrastructure investments ahead of capacity exhaustion. Global mobile data traffic has grown at approximately 30–50% CAGR over the past decade (Ericsson Mobility Report, Cisco VNI). A 30% CAGR means traffic doubles roughly every 2.6 years — requiring a capacity expansion decision long before that point.
How is network traffic doubling time calculated?▾
Doubling time is calculated using the Rule of 70 approximation or the exact formula: T_double = log(2) / log(1 + CAGR/100). At 30% CAGR, T_double = 0.693 / log(1.30) = 2.64 years. At 50% CAGR, T_double ≈ 1.71 years. Doubling time is the most intuitive metric for communicating growth rate to non-technical stakeholders — "our traffic doubles every 2.5 years" is easier to act on than "we have 28% CAGR".
What is a realistic CAGR for mobile data traffic?▾
Global mobile data traffic grew at roughly 30–50% CAGR from 2015 to 2025, driven by video streaming, 4G penetration, and early 5G deployments (Ericsson Mobility Report 2024). Individual operator CAGRs vary significantly — operators in mature markets with high 4G penetration may see 15–25% CAGR, while operators in high-growth emerging markets or those in early 5G rollout phases may see 40–60% or higher. For planning purposes, operators typically use a conservative CAGR (10th percentile of forecast) to avoid over-building and an aggressive CAGR (90th percentile) to dimension worst-case capacity.
How do you calculate CAGR from two traffic data points?▾
CAGR = ((End / Start)^(1/n) − 1) × 100, where n is the number of years between the two measurements. For example, if traffic grew from 100 Gbps to 400 Gbps over 4 years: CAGR = ((400/100)^(1/4) − 1) × 100 = (4^0.25 − 1) × 100 = (1.4142 − 1) × 100 = 41.4%. This is the Mode 2 calculation in this tool — enter any two known data points and years apart to derive the historical CAGR for use in forecasting.